Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Busiest Rail Travel Day for 2006 (Jan 26th)

Thanksgiving in the US has nothing on the Spring Festival in China. The period surrounding the Chinese Lunar new year creates the single largest source of trips on the planet. According to the Los Angeles Times, "Specialists estimate that Chinese will take 2 billion long- and short-distance trips during the New Year's period, 100 million more than last year."

Because the New Year's Day itself (Jan 29th, 2006) has three preparation days, long distance travel should have peaked about 4 days in advance, while shorter travel may have peaked slightly later--perhaps late on the 25th or early on the 26th. In the case of travel between the Mainland and Taiwan, I did confirm that the peak came this year on Wednesday, January 25th.

I could not find an exact citation for the rail peak, but I'm guessing it follows the same pattern as American Thanksgiving where air travel and the longer trips and vehicle miles traveled to Thanksgiving peak earlier (on late Tuesday or early Wednesday) while shorter trips peak on late Wednesday or the day itself (Thursday).

I'm still looking for sources that describe whether the sharpest peak happens before or after each of these holidays.

I'm also reserving judgment on the World's busiest air travel day. While the Chinese migration is very large, it is done mostly by rail, leaving an opening for air travel to Mecca for the Haj to actually produce the single busiest air travel day since Saudi Arabia is relatively more reliant on air than rail for getting pilgrims to Mecca.

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